Application of European numerical weather prediction models for hydrological purposes

Ihász, István and Mátrai, Amarilla and Szintai, Balázs and Szűcs, Mihály and Bonta, Imre (2018) Application of European numerical weather prediction models for hydrological purposes. IDŐJÁRÁS = QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 122 (1). pp. 59-79. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

Nowadays, hydrological forecasts are based on wide range of meteorological inputs, including observations and forecasts. In this paper four main areas are covered. First of all, milestones covering last four decades from usage of a simple statistical method to regional limited area modeling are summarized. Then an overview of the main activities of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is given. Usage of ensemble forecasts for providing uncertainty is getting larger and larger attention for hydrological applications too. Benefits of a locally developed new tool, the ensemble calibration method based on reforecast model climate is given in the third part. Finally, local developments on regional hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models are shown. It is shown that a high resolution limited area non-hydrostatic model can predict summer heavy precipitation more accurately.

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