Spatial analysis of air temperature and its impact on the sustainable development of mountain tourism in Central and Western Serbia

Vukoičić, Danijela and Milosavljević, Saša and Penjišević, Ivana and Bačević, Nikola and Nikolić, Milena and Ivanović, Radomir and Jandžiković, Bojana (2018) Spatial analysis of air temperature and its impact on the sustainable development of mountain tourism in Central and Western Serbia. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 122 (3). pp. 259-283. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

Empirical studies of the late twentieth and early twenty-first century indicate the existence of a growth trend in air temperature. This trend is particularly pronounced in the region of Southern Europe, including the Republic of Serbia. Many problems occur in the socio-economic areas due to global warming, which directly influences the development of tourism. In this study, we will deal with the influence of climate change on the sustainable development of mountain tourism in the area of the western and central Serbia tourist zones, which includes Starovlaška and Kopaonik mountain chain. The data on changes in the temperature of air will be gathered at six different altitude meteorological stations, for the period from 1990 to 2014. All weather stations in the studied area were classified into three groups: lowland, middle and high mountain. In order to obtain trends, three sets of data were used: the average monthly temperature, the maximum monthly temperature, and the monthly minimum temperature, recorded in each station. The seasonal classification has been conducted based on four seasons: spring,m summer, autumn, and winter. Three statistical approaches were used to analyze the temperature trends in 15 time series, for each group of stations individually. First, the trend equation was calculated for each time series, then, completely separate from the first approach, all trends were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test, and in the end, in all cases, the trend magnitude was calculated based on the trend equation. The results show that there is a significant positive trend of temperature rise on an annual basis, while the trend is significantly positive during the fall and spring seasons. In winter, the trend is slightly positive or absent, while in the summer trend is moderately positive in all three groups of stations.

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