Globalisation and macroeconomic statistics: Problems of measurement, interpretation and international comparison

Oblath, Gábor (2007) Globalisation and macroeconomic statistics: Problems of measurement, interpretation and international comparison. Hungarian Statistical Review, 84 (SN10). pp. 6-23. ISSN 0039-0690

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Abstract

The article addresses a general problem and two specific economic-statistical issues related to globalisation. The general point concerns certain conflicting trends involved in globalisation: while the macroeconomic importance of, and the demand for, statistics on international transactions increases, it is becoming more and more difficult to apply the standard distinctions between “domestic” and “cross-border” real and financial economic transactions. The effects of this conflict are primarily experienced by institutions responsible for supplying statistics. However, users of economic statistics also face challenges deriving from trends associated with globalisation. Economic analysts tend to interpret national developments in international comparison on the basis of a few headline indicators, but this may result in misleading conclusions. To illustrate this point, two examples, both related to the experiences of the new mew members of the EU, are discussed: 1. the interpretation/comparison of income convergence on the one hand, and 2. that of external imbalances on the other. As pointed out, it is necessary to look beyond the “big picture” in order to reach conclusions that are sound both from an economic and a statistical point of view.

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