Allocating vaccines to remote and on-site workers in the tradable sector

Czaller, László and Tóth, Gergő and Lengyel, Balázs (2022) Allocating vaccines to remote and on-site workers in the tradable sector. In: Emerging Europe's chronic distrust : Lessons from the region's COVID puzzle. Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem, Budapest, pp. 121-138. ISBN 9789635039272

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Abstract

Vaccination may be the solution to the pandemic-induced health crisis, but the allocation of vaccines is a complex task which raises important ethical, economic and social considerations. The biggest challenge is to use the limited number of vaccines available in a way that protects vulnerable groups, prevents infections from spreading further and reduces economic uncertainty. We argue that once the vaccination of healthcare workers and the most vulnerable groups has been completed, prioritising the vaccination of on-site workers is important not only to slow the spread of the infection, but also to ensure the smooth running of economic production. We propose a simple economic model in which remote and on-site workers complement each other in the short run, thus a negative shock to the supply of either one may decrease the demand for the other, leading to unemployment. By using pre-COVID employment data from Sweden and Hungary to illustrate the model, we show that the optimal vaccine allocation between remote and on-site workers in the tradable sector should be based on different proportions depending on the relative infection risk of on-site workers and the degree of vaccine availability. As long as the number of vaccines is limited and on-site workers are at a higher risk of infection, they should generally be preferred. However, as more vaccines become available, countries like Sweden, where the share of occupations that can be done remotely is higher, should start immunising remote workers. In Hungary, where on-site work is dominant in the tradable sector, the continued vaccination of on-site workers is more beneficial.

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