Analysis of the expected development paths of Central-Eastern European countries between 2022 and 2025

Kocziszky, György and Szendi, Dóra (2023) Analysis of the expected development paths of Central-Eastern European countries between 2022 and 2025. ÉSZAK-MAGYARORSZÁGI STRATÉGIAI FÜZETEK, 20 (2). pp. 14-30. ISSN 1786-1594

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Abstract

The study attempts to determine the development paths of six Central and Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Romania) for the period 2022– 2025 using a time-series complex development index developed by the authors. In addition to expected economic output, the index takes into account the level of human and technical infrastructure affecting the quality of life of the population, as well as environmental impacts. The autoregressive model used in the study is a single-sector model with panel data and considers the path dependence of the projected changes and the risks from external shocks. The latter are incorporated into the projections using expert estimates. Our analyses show that, except for the Czech Republic, the members of the country group under review are mainly on diverging development paths until 2025. Only the Czech Republic is expected to converge towards the EU development path.

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