The Long-run Stability of a Small, Open Economy under Crawling Peg Regime

Çiftçioâlu, S. (2002) The Long-run Stability of a Small, Open Economy under Crawling Peg Regime. Acta Oeconomica, 52 (1). pp. 57-78. ISSN 0001-6373

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Abstract

The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.

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