A migráció bruttó hazai termékre gyakorolt hatása és az így keletkező közegészségügyi többletköltségek csökkentését támogató javaslatok = The impact of migration on gross domestic product and cost-reducing recommendations

Éberhardt, Gábor (2024) A migráció bruttó hazai termékre gyakorolt hatása és az így keletkező közegészségügyi többletköltségek csökkentését támogató javaslatok = The impact of migration on gross domestic product and cost-reducing recommendations. SCIENTIA ET SECURITAS, 5 (4). pp. 365-388. ISSN 3057-9759

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Abstract

Tanulmányomban a migráció, különösen az irreguláris migráció és a fertőző betegségek közötti összefüggéseket vizsgáltam az Európai Unió tagállamaiban 2015–2023 között, valamint ezeknek a GDP közegészségügyi költségeire gyakorolt hatásait. Közhiteles adatbázisok és tematikus szakirodalom alapján elemeztem a migrációban rejlő közegészségügyi kockázatokat, beleértve a globális mobilitás és a hibrid hadviselés szerepét is. A kutatás, annak összegzése igazolta a fertőző betegségek behurcolásának kockázatát, amelyet térképi és statisztikai elemzésekkel is bemutatok. Javaslatokat tettem nemzeti és szupranacionális szabályozásokra, AI-alapú eszközrendszer alkalmazására, hangsúlyozva a további kutatások szükségességét. | In my publication, I utilise quantitative and qualitative research methodologies to investigate potential correlations between human migration (both regular and irregular), the spread of infectious diseases, and public health expenditures as a percentage of GDP. The research focuses on European Union member states during the 2015–2023 period. I primarily relied on publicly accessible and reliable electronic databases, analyzing and evaluating the data to derive actual and probable conclusions. During this process, it became apparent that certain member states did not provide comprehensive or sufficient data on the subject matter. Additionally, I studied thematically relevant domestic and international academic publications to support the research. In the introductory section, I outlined the hypothesis underpinning my research, emphasizing the significant security risks associated with migration. These risks include the potential for introducing infectious diseases and the spread of possible epidemics, which may, in some cases, be of intentional origin. To ensure consistent handling of the concepts and interpretations used in the study, I provided clear definitions and sourced references for these terms. In the main body of the study, I examined both unintentional and deliberately created health risks associated with regular and irregular migration, particularly in the context of imported infectious diseases. The analysis highlighted the critical role of globalization and accelerated mobility in exacerbating these risks. Additionally, I addressed the potential dangers of hybrid warfare, including terrorism, as a contributing factor to these health risks. These elements were examined through thematic analyses supported by data trends and case studies. In the concluding section, I summarized the findings and results, which affirmed the validity of the hypothesis. The data revealed significant shifts in the main routes and target countries of irregular migration, correlated with an increase in confirmed cases of infectious diseases in the affected regions. Furthermore, the research highlighted trends in health expenditures as a percentage of GDP, providing insights into the financial impact of migrationrelated health challenges. The findings also facilitated the creation of maps illustrating the internal characteristics of migration-origin countries and their association with specific diseases. Based on these results, I proposed targeted recommendations for developing, implementing, and regulating policies at both supranational and national levels. These measures aim to mitigate the identified risks and improve public health resilience in migration. The research topic revealed several elements that require further investigation. In addition to the recommended policy interventions and AI-based tools, the results provide a basis for a deeper study of related issues. To illustrate the analysis, thematic diagrams and tables have been prepared and are included as a referenced annexe.

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