Változó migrációs trendek a Nyugat-Balkánon = Changing migration trends in the Western Balkan

Marsai, Viktor and Párducz, Árpád and Tárik, Meszár (2025) Változó migrációs trendek a Nyugat-Balkánon = Changing migration trends in the Western Balkan. SCIENTIA ET SECURITAS, 5 (4). pp. 334-341. ISSN 3057-9759

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Abstract

A tanulmány az elmúlt egy évben a nyugat-balkáni irreguláris migrációs útvonalon bekövetkezett változásokat vizsgálja. Az elemzés kiemeli Románia és Bulgária tranzitországként betöltött növekvő szerepét, ami a szigorított határellenőrzéseknek és a migrációs minták változásának köszönhető. Ezenfelül bemutatja az olyan közösségimédia-platformok funkcióját az embercsempész-hálózatok szervezésében, mint a Facebook és a WhatsApp, ahol az anonim kommunikáció révén szervezik az illegális határátlépéseket. Továbbá a kutatás részletesen elemzi az alternatív útvonalak dinamikáját, különös tekintettel a román–magyar határra, és értékeli a helyi hatóságok válaszlépéseit, beleértve a Frontexszel való szorosabb együttműködést. A terepkutatások és az online csoportok tevékenységeinek feltárása révén fény derül az irreguláris migráció és az embercsempészés jelentette kihívásokra, rámutatva az integrált szakpolitikai megoldások szükségességére. | The study examines the changes that have occurred over the past year along the Western Balkan route of irregular migration. Since October 2023, the increasing activity of the Serbian authorities along the Serbian-Hungarian border has restructured the main migratory routes towards Europe. The analysis highlights the growing role of Romania and Bulgaria as transit countries, attributed to stricter border controls and shifts in migratory patterns. In 2022, Bulgarian authorities registered 164 000, while in 2023 180 000 irregular border crossing attempts. Considering the join of the two countries to the Schengen zone, their importance in the border protection of the EU will be critical, and it is essential to understand the dynamics of irregular migration in the region. The paper also illustrates the function of social media platforms such as Facebook and WhatsApp in facilitating human smuggling networks, where anonymous communication is used to organize illegal border crossings. The researchers of MRI got access to the groups and collected data about the modus operandi of the network. Unfortunately, most irregular migrants use these sources of information to organize their journey to Europe. Since smugglers are interested in recruiting as many people as they can, in most cases social media platforms contain false information about the risks of the journey to encourage more people to leave and pay. Furthermore, the research provides a detailed examination of the dynamics of alternative routes, with a particular focus on the Romanian-Hungarian border, and assesses the responses of local authorities. By uncovering the activities of field research and online groups, the study sheds light on the challenges posed by irregular migration and human smuggling, emphasizing the need for integrated policy solutions. Additionally, particular attention is given to Bulgaria, which in recent years has become one of the primary entry points for irregular migration in the Balkans. The migration pressure on the country is further intensified by armed attacks against authorities, some of which have resulted in fatalities. The research reveals that Bulgarian authorities have been forced to enhance cooperation with Turkish authorities and Frontex, while also implementing new surveillance and defense systems. Another key finding is the increasing use of modified vehicles by human smuggling networks to evade enforcement. However, these methods often lead to severe traffic accidents, frequently resulting in loss of life.

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