Harmony expired: Why did the main mouthpiece of Latvia’s minorities fail during the 2022 parliamentary election?

Kascian, K. (2024) Harmony expired: Why did the main mouthpiece of Latvia’s minorities fail during the 2022 parliamentary election? INTERSECTIONS: EAST EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF SOCIETY AND POLITICS, 10 (3). pp. 136-153. ISSN 2416-089X

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Abstract

Latvia is a small European state with a significant minority constituency. Minorities comprise a significant part of its political landscape, marked by a cleavage between ethnic Latvians and so-called Russophones. For over a decade, the political representation of Latvia’s minorities was dominated by Harmony, an integrationist social-democratic political party that mobilized voters beyond ethnic lines. This study analyzes Harmony’s campaign messages delivered by the party’s key figures during the 2022 parliamentary election to identify the reasons for their failure. It argues that Harmony’s strategies overlooked the challenges posed by political rivals, including those with similar constituency characteristics. The analysis of Harmony’s electoral sustainability includes a comparison of the party’s performance in all campaigns from the 2006 to 2022 parliamentary elections, with a specific focus on Riga and Latgale, the party’s electoral strongholds. These findings suggest that integrationist parties are increasingly vulnerable to shifts in the political environment caused by changing domestic and international political contexts.

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