Egy kudarc boncképe: a felvidéki magyar politika 2023-as bukásának választásstatisztikája (2.)

Harrach, Gábor (2024) Egy kudarc boncképe: a felvidéki magyar politika 2023-as bukásának választásstatisztikája (2.). KISEBBSÉGI SZEMLE, 9 (3). pp. 7-39. ISSN 2498-8049

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Abstract

In this study, the ethnic related reasons are examined for the 2023 election set-back of the Hungarian party in Slovakia, the Alliance (in Hungarian: Szövetség). It explores the attitudes of ethnic-Hungarian voters regarding their willingness to participate in elections and in their party preferences. The first step was to estimate the number of Hungarians eligible to vote and the ethnic composition of each party, which was carried out according to local census and election statistics. The estimation was based on the assumption of the equal participation rate of ethnic groups at the local level, on the one hand, and on the other hand, of the probability for choosing a party corresponding to ethnic affiliation. According to the aggregated data at the district and national levels, the willingness of Hungarians to participate in elections was significantly lower than that of the majority, which is one of the most relevant reasons for the Alliance’s electoral weak showing. However, an even bigger role was played by the fact that only 30% of former Hungarian voters of the small multi-ethnic party, the Bridge (in Slovak and Hungarian: Most–Híd) voted for the Alliance in the 2023 election, while 70% of them chose one of the Slovak parties. The only positive electoral result for the Association was that, compared to the previous election, their support increased significantly in some localities, but this was not enough to get it into the parliament.

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