Middle East Geopolitics Under Trump’s Second Presidency: Implications for Iran’s Nuclear Program

Ibrahimova, Gulzar (2026) Middle East Geopolitics Under Trump’s Second Presidency: Implications for Iran’s Nuclear Program. MODERN GEOGRÁFIA, 21 (3). pp. 65-78. ISSN 2062-1655

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Abstract

The resurgence of Donald Trump’s presidency in 2025 has introduced new complexities into U.S.–Iran relations and global nuclear diplomacy. This article examines the strategic implications of the Trump administration’s renewed “maximum pressure” policy on Iran’s nuclear program. Building on the precedent of Washington’s 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA, the research investigates how coercive diplomacy, military threats, and intensified sanctions influence Tehran’s nuclear trajectory and regional security dynamics. It considers how the U.S. approach, characterized by strict enforcement of sanctions and diplomatic pressure, may affect Tehran’s nuclear activities, regional security, and the functioning of multilateral negotiation mechanisms. The analysis also explores the role of regional actors and international institutions in shaping the evolving strategic landscape. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of Trump’s second presidency on nuclear diplomacy with Iran and to evaluate the potential consequences for regional and global security architecture.

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