Evaluating climate change impacts on water safety : A case study of the Danube in Budapest

Takácsné György, Katalin and Nagy-Kovács, Zsuzsanna (2024) Evaluating climate change impacts on water safety : A case study of the Danube in Budapest. ECOCYCLES, 10 (2). pp. 14-25. ISSN 2416-2140

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Abstract

The study examines the impact of climate change on the example of the Danube as a drinking water base in the Budapest area. The drinking water supply provided by river bank filtration systems is exposed to more frequent water level fluctuations and temperature changes in the connected surface waters. Our goal was to identify the most critical periods within the year by evaluating the daily water level and water temperature data between 1943-2021 and 1947-2021, respectively. It is important to understand the severity and frequency of climatic changes influencing drinking water safety. This aim can be achieved by evaluating the identified risks. Furthermore, as these risks affecting drinking water safety change significantly within a year, attention is drawn to the important role of both residential and industrial water use patterns. The minimum level of water safety determined for the period of increased load is of indicative value, based on which it becomes necessary to develop appropriate action plans. Based on statistical methods, it has been previously identified that the average water level of the Danube showed a decreasing trend in addition to an increase in water temperature. In this paper, we demonstrate that the water level fluctuations and the temperature changes follow an annual pattern. By superposing these patterns in an additive risk matrix, critical periods can be determined and, therefore, play a significant role in the time planning of larger maintenance or investment tasks. The study did not aim to evaluate in detail the investigation of other ecological, economic, and social effects of climate change related to drinking water safety for reasons of scope.

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