Determination of changes in the total amount of precipitation using the Mann-Kendall trend test in Central Serbia for the period from 1949 to 2018

Bačević, Nikola R. and Valjarević, Aleksandar and Nikolić, Milena and Stevanović, Vladica and Dragojlović, Jovan and Radaković, Milica G. and Kićović, Dušan and Marković, Rastko S. and Marković, Slobodan B. and Lukić, Tin (2024) Determination of changes in the total amount of precipitation using the Mann-Kendall trend test in Central Serbia for the period from 1949 to 2018. IDŐJÁRÁS, 128 (4). pp. 451-472. ISSN 03246329

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Abstract

This study presents the trend analysis for a specific category of variables, namely the average annual precipitation. The geospatial distribution of the obtained results in Central Serbia is visualized using Geographic Information System (GIS) numerical analysis. The primary objective of this study is to identify potential changes in the trends of average annual precipitation within the observed area. Methodologically, the MannKendall trend test, trend equation, and trend magnitude were employed for trend analysis. The data used for the analysis were sourced from the Meteorological Yearbooks of the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, encompassing a total of 24 meteorological stations and spanning the period from 1949 to 2018. Based on the obtained results, statistically significant positive trends were observed in 17 time series, favoring the alternative hypothesis. Conversely, a decline in precipitation was noted in the remaining 7 time series. Among the time series, the largest increases in the total amount of precipitation over the past 69 years were recorded ont he area of the Dinaric Mountains. Conversely, the lowest increase in average precipitation was observed in the central part od the country.Furthermore, the time series with the greatest decrease in average annual precipitation was recorded ont he southeastern part of the country. In order to effectively address water-related challenges associated with precipitation fluctuations, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of the shifting trends in precipitation over the region of Central Serbia.

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