Future climatic suitability of key agricultural and forest land cover types in the Middle Danube Basin under SSP5-8.5.

Trájer, Attila János (2025) Future climatic suitability of key agricultural and forest land cover types in the Middle Danube Basin under SSP5-8.5. STUDIA BOTANICA HUNGARICA, 56 (1). pp. 169-190. ISSN 0301-7001

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Abstract

Climate change is projected to cause substantial shifts in the distribution and climatic suitability of both natural and cultivated vegetation types across Central Europe, with the Middle Danube Basin being particularly sensitive. This study applies climate envelope modelling to assess future suitability for non-irrigated arable lands, broadleaf forests, olive groves, and Mediterranean sclerophyllous vegetation under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, using CMCC-ESM2 climate data for the period 2021–2100. Six bioclimatic variables (bio1, bio10, bio11, bio12, bio18, bio19) were used to define suitability thresholds based on Boolean logic and 5–95% percentile cuts from current conditions. The results reveal a marked decline in the climatic suitability of non-irrigated arable lands, mainly due to intensifying drought and increasing temperature variability. Broadleaf forests are expected to retreat northward, with most lowland and upland areas becoming unsuitable by the end of the century, except for some riparian gallery forests. Olive groves will likely remain climatically unstable due to persistent continental winters. However, sclerophyllous vegetation may establish in localized areas by late century as Mediterranean-like conditions emerge. These findings highlight the need for forward-looking land use and conservation strategies to support ecological resilience in this climate-sensitive region.

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