Effects of Southern Oscillation and North Sea-Caspian Pattern on the rainfall intensity series in the Black Sea Region of Türkiye

Keskin, Aslı Ulke and Kazembeigi, Reza and Zeybekoglu, Utku (2026) Effects of Southern Oscillation and North Sea-Caspian Pattern on the rainfall intensity series in the Black Sea Region of Türkiye. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 130 (1). pp. 29-43. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

This study investigates the influence of the Southern Oscillation and North Sea-Caspian Pattern on maximum rainfall intensities in the Black Sea Region of Türkiye. Annual maximum rainfall intensity series from 16 meteorological stations were analyzed, and correlation coefficients were calculated and evaluated at α = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10 significance levels. Results indicate that the Southern Oscillation predominantly affects short- and medium-duration rainfall in Sinop, whereas the North Sea-Caspian Pattern shows significant correlations with medium- and long-duration rainfall in Bartın, Bayburt, and Gümüşhane. These findings highlight the spatially varying influence of atmospheric oscillations on rainfall extremes in the region.

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