Fiscal Risks in an Ageing World and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Pradhan, Manoj and Goodhart, Charles (2024) Fiscal Risks in an Ageing World and the Implications for Monetary Policy. FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW, 23 (4). pp. 69-79. ISSN 2415-9271

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Abstract

Ageing societies are likely to face rapidly changing structural macroeconomic trends, with fiscal balances likely to worsen over time. It is widely acknowledged by forecasters and financial markets that debt-to-GDP ratios are tending to rise over time, but there are signs that the size and persistence of future deficits and debts may be underestimated. This underestimation comes from three sources: i) incorrect consideration of the medical complications of older cohorts; ii) a demography-driven rise in inflation, real interest rates and interest expenses; and iii) misalignment of fiscal and monetary policy incentives in an inflationary environment. We argue that a new era is starting, when we will have to face complicated relations between demography, and fiscal and monetary policy.

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