Political Economic Cycles in Electoral and Non-Electoral Years in Local Government in Portugal : A Case Study

Marta, Alexandra Rico Pereira and Maria, Manuela Santos Natário and Amândio, Pereira Baía (2026) Political Economic Cycles in Electoral and Non-Electoral Years in Local Government in Portugal : A Case Study. PUBLIC GOVERNANCE ADMINISTRATION AND FINANCES LAW REVIEW, 11. pp. 1-20. ISSN 2498-6275 (In Press)

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Abstract

This article aims to assess the existence of opportunistic behaviour among mayors during election years within the framework of Political Economic Cycles (PEC). Therefore, the trajectory of some public expenditure over four electoral cycles is analysed in the municipalities belonging to the Intermunicipal Community of Beiras and Serra da Estrela (CIMBSE) in Portugal. The study covers the period from 2008 to 2022 in a data panel that encompasses the fifteen municipalities belonging to CIMBSE. The data includes total, current, capital and investment expenditure, and it has been statistically analysed to compare spending trends in election years and non-election years. The empirical tests carried out showed the existence of opportunistic behaviour among mayors during election years, manifesting itself in terms of municipal spending, namely total and current spending, both overall and per capita. Nevertheless, no cases of opportunistic behaviour have been identified with regard to capital and investment expenditure.

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