Csató, László and Petróczy, Dóra Gréta (2026) Are penalty shootouts better than a coin toss? Evidence from international club football in Europe. JOURNAL OF SPORTS ECONOMICS, 27 (6). pp. 713-734. ISSN 1527-0025
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Abstract
Penalty shootouts play a crucial role in the knockout stage of major football tournaments. Their importance has substantially increased from the 2021/22 season, when the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) scrapped the away goals rule. Our paper examines whether the outcome of a penalty shootout can be predicted in UEFA club competitions. Based on all shootouts between 2000 and 2025, no evidence is found for the effect of the kicking order, the field of the match, or psychological momentum. In contrast to previous results, we do not detect any relationship between shootout success and relative team strength, quantified by differences in Elo ratings and the implied winning probability. Thus, the hypothesis that penalty shootouts are close to a coin toss in international competitions for European football clubs cannot be rejected.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Elo rating, fairness, football, momentum, penalty shootout |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation / földrajz, antropológia, kikapcsolódás > GV Recreation Leisure / szabadidő, szórakozás > GV557-GV558 Sport and fitness sciences / Sport és fitnessztudományok Q Science / természettudomány > QA Mathematics / matematika Q Science / természettudomány > QA Mathematics / matematika > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science / számítástechnika, számítógéptudomány |
| SWORD Depositor: | MTMT SWORD |
| Depositing User: | MTMT SWORD |
| Date Deposited: | 01 Sep 2026 14:51 |
| Last Modified: | 01 Sep 2026 14:51 |
| URI: | https://real.mtak.hu/id/eprint/245113 |
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