Spatiotemporal assessment of drought under historical and projected scenarios in the Himalayan region of Uttarakhand, India

Goel, Shubhika and Kothijal, Shivani and Singh, Raj Kumar (2026) Spatiotemporal assessment of drought under historical and projected scenarios in the Himalayan region of Uttarakhand, India. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 130 (3). pp. 273-296. ISSN 0324-6329

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Abstract

Mountainous regions such as Uttarakhand, India, are highly vulnerable to climate change owing to their complex terrain and dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture. This study analyzes spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and agricultural droughts across Kumaon and Garhwal using historical records (1901–2022) and climate projections (2023–2100) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 moderate and high green-house gas emissions scenarios. Results reveal substantial intra-regional disparities: annual rainfall historically ranged from 1203 mm in rain-shadow zones (Almora, Tehri) to 1930 mm in Himalayan-facing districts (Pithoragarh, Chamoli). Projections suggest up to 20% rainfall increase in Pithoragarh and Chamoli, with little change in Almora and Tehri. Drought analysis shows late-season droughts in the historically dominant agricultural monsoon period Karif (spanning from June to October), particularly in Udham Singh (US) Nagar and Chamoli. Future projections indicate declining severe but more persistent moderate Kharif droughts (e.g., US Nagar 20.9%, Champawat 19%). Conversely, Rabi season (spanning from October to March) droughts are projected to intensify in high-altitude districts: Pithoragarh (20 years, ~11.5 weeks), Dehradun (16 years, ~13.5 weeks), threatening wheat and mustard yields with >40–50% losses. Late-season droughts also remain recurrent in Nainital (26 years) and Uttarkashi (27 years). Overall, Kumaon’s vulnerability stems from persistent Kharif droughts, while Garhwal faces prolonged Rabi droughts (up to 14 weeks). These findings highlight the need for district- and season-specific adaptation strategies, focusing on climate-resilient crops and improved water management.

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