Spatial analysis of evapotranspiration and drought under climate change scenarios in the Qazvin region of Iran

Nazari, Bijan and Kazemi, Arezoo and Dehghani Ahmadabadi, Maryam and Ehsani Kolikand, Samaneh and Kanani, Elahe and Nazaripour, Hamid (2026) Spatial analysis of evapotranspiration and drought under climate change scenarios in the Qazvin region of Iran. IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 130 (3). pp. 317-342. ISSN 0324-6329

Preview

Text 130-3-5-NAZARI.pdf - Published Version Download (4MB) | Preview

Abstract

The simultaneous assessment of evapotranspiration and drought is imperative for adaptive water resource planning due to the growing challenges posed by climate change on agricultural production. A downscaling exercise was carried out using the SDSM model for three climate scenarios developed as part of the Sixth Assessment Report (CMIP6): an optimistic scenario (SSP126), a moderate scenario (SSP245), and a pessimistic scenario (SSP585). For model calibration and validation, long-term meteorological data from five stations were used, and drought conditions were assessed using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Based on the validation results, the model demonstrated high accuracy for simulating temperature and reference evapotranspiration. However, precipitation simulations demonstrated moderate accuracy. Under all scenarios, annual temperatures increased, with the largest increase projected under SSP585. In spite of the fact that changes in precipitation did not reach statistical significance, it is likely that a moderate decline will occur by 2062, under SSP126. Under future climate conditions, there will be a decrease in precipitation in the southeast of the province, an intensified warming in Buin-Zahra, and an increase in evapotranspiration. It was noted that there were frequent severe droughts over the past years. Based on projections for the next decade, drought and wet periods are expected to alternate, with adverse effects expected in the southeast and Buin-Zahra regions. It is evident, from these findings, that sustainable water resource management, climate-adapted agricultural methods, and spatially targeted planning are urgently required to reduce the vulnerability of the province of Qazvin. Hence, adaptation policies should prioritise highly vulnerable areas based on the presented spatial analysis in order to enhance agricultural resilience to drought and climate change.

Actions (login required)

View Item