Menekültválság és regionális konfliktusok Kelet-Afrikában = Refugee crisis and regional conflicts in East Africa

Marsai, Viktor (2024) Menekültválság és regionális konfliktusok Kelet-Afrikában = Refugee crisis and regional conflicts in East Africa. SCIENTIA ET SECURITAS, 5 (4). pp. 358-364. ISSN 3057-9759

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Abstract

Jelen tanulmány arra tesz kísérletet, hogy bemutassa a 2024 végén tapasztalható kelet-afrikai kényszermigrációs helyzetet; elemezze a trendeket és fő mozgatóikat; megvizsgálja azt a kérdést, hogy vajon tartható-e még a hagyományos regionális felosztás. Végül pedig mindezek szemléltetésére esettanulmányul hozza a 2023 áprilisában kitört szudáni polgárháború következményeit. A tanulmány mindezt elsődleges (hivatalos dokumentumok, statisztikák, interjúk) és másodlagos források (hosszabb elemző cikkek, tanulmányok, monográfiák) felhasználásával vizsgálja. Az előbbiek között szereplő, félig strukturált, a Chatam House Rules alapján készült interjúkat a szerző 2020 januárja és 2024 októbere között rögzítette Egyiptomban, Etiópiában és Kenyában. | By the end of 2024, the wider East African region faced one of the most complex and extensive humanitarian crises in the world. The zone stretching from Eastern Chad to Kenya hosted almost 26 million internal and external refugees, a 14-fold increase compared to ten years earlier. Human factors played a role in this, such as armed conflicts, coups and the great power competition, as well as disasters caused by environmental changes, such as droughts and desertification. This study attempts to present the forced migration situation in East Africa at the end of 2024; analyze trends and their main drivers; examines whether the traditional regional division can still be maintained. And finally, to illustrate all of this, he brings the consequences of the Sudanese civil war that broke out in April 2023 as a case study. The study examines all of this using primary (official documents, statistics, interviews) and secondary sources (longer analytical articles, studies, monographs). Among the former, the semi-structured interviews based on Chatam House Rules were recorded by the author between January 2020 and October 2024 in Egypt, Ethiopia and Kenya. Although the vast majority of refugees remained in the region, according to statistics, millions of people leave the continent every year or reach its most stable region, South Africa. Migration routes change dynamically, which are greatly influenced by conflicts and the often wrong perceptions of those who set out on the journey. At the same time, it is clear from the research that it is not possible to undertake longer journeys without the involvement of human traffickers – and large sums of money. At the same time, the region is not doomed to failure. The example of the Sudanese civil war clearly shows that it is not caused by structural reasons, but by personal differences. The problem is that, in the conditions of the current global competition, there is not enough will among the international actors to act in a unified manner against the opposing parties. This projects the trend (keeping in mind the similar dynamics of the Sahel) that the chance of similar crises will continue to increase in the coming years.

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