Vízközpontú gondolatok a dél-afrikai régió élelmezési biztonságáról = Water-centric reflections on food security in the South African region

Bogárdi, János József (2025) Vízközpontú gondolatok a dél-afrikai régió élelmezési biztonságáról = Water-centric reflections on food security in the South African region. SCIENTIA ET SECURITAS, 6 (1-2). pp. 81-89. ISSN 3057-9759

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Abstract

Ez a tanulmány a dél-afrikai élelmiszer-biztonságot vizsgálja, a vízre mint kritikus és gyakran korlátozó erőforrásra fókuszálva. Egy elméleti extrém vízfogyasztási forgatókönyvet” használva megbecsüli, hogy hány ember táplálása lenne lehetséges, ha az összes megújuló vízforrást maximálisan öntözésre használnák. Az eredmények szerint az öntözés még ideális körülmények között sem elégséges a jövőbeli élelmiszerigények kielégítésére, mivel a víz inkább korlátozó tényező. Az elemzés hangsúlyozza, hogy az öntözés kiterjesztése jelentős infrastruktúra-beruházásokat igényelne, ami pénzügyi és technikai kihívásokat jelent. Ezenkívül szociálpolitikai problémák is súlyosbítják a helyzetet, például a gazdálkodók képzettségének hiánya, az ineffektív vízhasználat és a földtulajdonlási egyenlőtlenségek. | This study reassesses food security in Southern Africa by focusing on water as a critical and often limiting resource. It explores a theoretical “extreme water use scenario” to estimate how many people could be fed if the renewable water resources up to their ecologically allowable limit were utilized for irrigation. The findings reveal that even under ideal conditions, irrigation alone cannot meet future food demands of the growing population, highlighting water as a constraint rather than a viable solution. The analysis underscores that significant expansion of irrigation would require massive investments in infrastructure – such as reservoirs, canals, and pumping systems – which pose substantial financial and technical challenges. These physical limitations are further compounded by socio-political issues, including inadequate farmer training, inefficient water use, and land ownership issues, such as “land grabbing.” Ultimately, the study advocates for a realistic, integrated approach to food security that combines improved water management, better farming practices, reduced post-harvest losses, and policy reforms. It argues that only a multi-faceted strategy, grounded in regional realities, can address the complex challenges ahead. The paper evaluates how fully utilizing Southern Africa’s renewable water resources for irrigation could impact the region’s food security. The study estimates irrigable land, water availability, and caloric yield per water unit, assuming a 40% irrigation efficiency, and draws on data from FAO, IWMI, WWF, and UN-DESA, while highlighting inconsistencies in regional statistics. Grounded in hydrological and demographic projections, the study is also informed by the author’s extensive field experience, particularly during a research residency at the Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study (STIAS). The paper provides a realistic framework for evaluating the limits of irrigation in meeting future nutritional needs. The study concludes that even in an ideal scenario, where over 30% of Southern Africa’s renewable water is used for irrigation, only 16–26% of the projected 2054 population could be fed. Although the water resources would allow up to 5.75 million hectares to be irrigated in the region, doing so would require massive infrastructure – over 100 km3 of additional reservoir capacity – and a significant improvement in water-use efficiency, currently only at 40%. The study suggests that most people will still rely on rainfed agriculture and food imports, and socio-political barriers like land grabbing and limited support for farmers will further restrict the region’s ability to meet future food needs through irrigation. The study concludes that water availability is a hard biophysical limit that cannot be overcome by infrastructure alone, emphasizing the need for a multifaceted strategy to address the region’s food security challenges.

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